A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
